2025-26: Melania topped the cycle, but Bitcoin and privacy will save us
In this post, I will argue that the bear market started in January 2025 and show how it affected both Bitcoin OGs and memecoin trenchers. Instead of making predictions, I’ll give you actionable advice for 2026.
2025
Every cycle has moments that clearly mark the top. For the 2017 cycle, Carlos Matos stood on the stage and chanted “BitConnect” to a packed audience. For the 2021 cycle, Randi Zuckerberg made the crypto music video “We’re All Gonna Make It.”
The memecoin traders were young and mostly traded from their phones. The memecoin trench-warrior was an expert in identifying viral memes that could be turned into Solana memecoins. While the 2017 ICO-buyer performed DD on PDFs for projects like Dentacoin, the trencher only looked at price momentum. Armed with a Phantom wallet, DEX Screener and a few dozen Discord/Telegram chats, the trencher used Telegram trading bots to dodge snipers.
The Bitcoiners had also been busy. Inspired by Saylor and theorizing that institutional boomers are limited to trading on the stock market, they made companies that only hold bitcoin. If you buy the shares early and the price of bitcoin rises, the boomers will jump on the momentum and provide exit liquidity. The hottest terms in Bitcoin became DAT and mNAV. Unfortunately, the price of bitcoin started declining and the exit liquidity never came. Some tried turning the fake business into a real business, which always meant Bitcoin mining. Share prices fell and some were forced to sell bitcoin holdings on the way down.
On January 19, 2025, Melania Trump launched a memecoin that peaked at over $13bn market cap. I know this because I bought some on Jupiter from my phone during a ski trip. It crashed within hours and took the entire memecoin cycle down with it. The few surviving trenchers tried to survive fighting each other, PvP-style, or switched to futures trading.
There are two different ways to judge the past year and gaze into the future from here. If you look only at the bitcoin/dollar price, you may argue that we’re in a 30% drawdown from the all-time high in October. Past cycles have had several drawdowns of this scale. But if you look at the price of bitcoin measured in euros, gold, or tech stocks, it’s been down only since Melania.
Assuming we’re one year into the bear market, are you ready to close the memecoin/treasury chapter?
2026
Sell everything you have but a single chair and put it in bitcoin
The future is private, decentralized, hard money, and markets. We have nearly all the pieces and just need to put them together. Bitcoin is the unbeatable honey badger of money and won’t be replaced in our lifetime. It will outperform every altcoin given a long enough timeframe. Proof of work was always the correct choice for a store of value.
Stop trading and lending on centralized exchanges
Hyperliquid, Solana, and Polymarket have shown us that marketplaces for spot, derivatives, and predictions are not only possible as decentralized on-chain marketplaces, but also provide superior liquidity and user experiences. This will extend to stocks, ICOs, and commodities in 2026. Aave and Spark on Ethereum continue to provide lending that’s safer than centralized platforms.
Get yourself a job in crypto
Crypto is still the best industry on Earth, and it’s not even close. We are revolutionizing money and markets with technology. I’ve been in this industry for 15 years and am continually excited. If you are considering a job in AI, which will turn into an advertising slop machine before your shares vest, pivot to crypto right now.
Use privacy coins for payments whenever possible
Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero are finally getting traction again. This is clearly the result of Trump finally ending the disgusting war on crypto waged by Biden and Warren. I expect Trump to pardon the remaining Biden victims if we all start using privacy coins and next-generation mixers like Privacy Pools.
Conclusion
It’s been a rough year both in and out of the trenches. The light-hearted memecoin trading on Solana was co-opted by politicians and celebrities to max extract from retail. Bitcoiners who used to preach self-custody started promoting bitcoin IOUs in the form of DATs. This is what PvP looks like. It happens at the end of every cycle. Too many sharks in the pool.
Use this time to invest in and fall in love with the technology of Bitcoin, privacy, self-custody, decentralization, and free markets. Follow projects, be a community member, and try everything that’s new. And before you know it, distant relatives will email you asking how to invest in crypto once again.